Wednesday, August 15, 2007

You Can Only Win If You Win. Unless You Don't.

We like to read the corporate media scandal as much as the next guy, if the next guy is killing time waiting for the freezer to put that extra layer of crispness on a bottle of Stoli. So recently while wading through the obligatory Clinton cleavage stories we ran across this headline: Why Each Leading GOP Candidate Will Not Win the Party Nomination.

Intriguing, thinks us. If no republican runs for office does that mean the whole thing will be called off? Will Hillary and Obama will go at it with Edwards and Gravel as respective vice presidential candidates? Can the republicans nominate Reagan even though he's dead? Would anyone notice? Could we borrow Canada's president?

We're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's find out why the republicans won't nominate anyone:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is personally popular and has a solid core of support. But, it is easy to argue that America's Mayor can't win the nomination because his views on social and cultural issues are out of step with a more conservative political party. Plus he's insane.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is looking good as a non-candidate and has soared in early polling. But it is easy to envision Thompson tanking once he formally enters the race and is forced to endure the grind of debates and other routine challenges. Lord knows republicans hate having to actually work for anything. How bourgeois, how proletariat, how...ethnic.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney looks good on camera, on his resume, and in his bank account. But, he has failed to gain traction with GOP voters nationally. Well, that's not surprising since you need a scorecard to keep up with his positions. Plus it's OK with republicans if you hate minorities, but you better be nice to your dog.

Finally, there's Arizona Senator John McCain. Of the four candidates in double digits, it's the easiest to show why he won't win the nomination. Within his own party, McCain is viewed favorably 54% and unfavorably by 40%, and a large majority (65%) believe the constitution prohibits electing a president over 100 years old.

So, if none of the top tier can win, who will it be? Someone from the second tier? Someone from the outside? Alan Keyes? Well, by outside we meant someone outside of the current gaggle of candidates, not outside reality. But let's see what the article says:

But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will.

We're sorry. Did you just say the people who can't win will win?

But, while it is easy to explain why each of those men will not win the GOP nomination, one of them will.

That's what we thought you said. Excuse us a moment. We're going to check on the Stoli.

McCain is certainly the least likely. His only hope at this point lies in the fact that the other three may all be kidnapped by aliens.

It's also tough for Romney to win without some help. However, if Thompson falters, Romney might be in the right place to pick up the pieces for Republicans who want somebody other than Giuliani. By this time, republicans who actually want somebody competent or at least consistent will have left the party or committed suicide.

It's easier to see a path to victory for Thompson or Giuliani. Thompson has to show he's for real after entering the race while Giuliani has to demonstrate he can reach out to some GOP voters who don't share his position on cultural issues. In other words, both men have to violate their personal standards, abandon any scruples they might have and madly pander to clueless people they secretly despise. In other words, become typical politicians. The one who does that best will win.

OK, let's recap. No one can win, but someone will win because everybody has a chance to win. We hope you are enlightened now. This has been a public service of Ironicus Maximus brought to you in part by the Corporation for Stating the Blindingly Obvious in cooperation with the Office of Brain Numbing Articles Reporters Get Paid To Write.

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